2022飞机价值管理国际论坛 Aircraft Value Management International Forum

自20世纪90年代以来，已有200架最初为中国航空公司拥有和运营的喷气式飞机被出售给外国公司，平均机龄为16.8年，其中近九成是客机。同期有140多架最初由中国航空公司运营的客机被改装为货机，平均机龄18.5年，其中大部分为A300、737Classic、757和MD-11等老一代机型，仅四架为较新的737NG机型。另外，仅有130多架飞机从中国的航空公司永久退役，平均机龄在17.2年。未来20年内中国将有近2500架客机退役，其中约550架将改装为货机，因此还剩下2000架左右将退役。未来五年内将有200多架当前机龄在13年或以上的737NG(平均机龄15.6年)将达到该机型的平均退役机龄(17.9年)，而有近280架当前机龄在12年或以上的A320ceo(平均机龄15年)将达到该机型的平均退役机龄(17.1年)。因此，仅就这两个机型而言，退役机龄区间内的潜在飞机总量已经超出了中国航空公司已退役、出售或客改货飞机的总量。二手飞机价值评估市场仍是国内航空金融租赁企业有待探索和开发的领域，2019年底突发的全球疫情又给在役飞机的未来价值走势带来了诸多不确定性，飞机价值评估作为航司资产优化的先决要素必定愈加受到关注，大量旧飞机到寿退役，飞机资产管理将向飞机全寿命管理发展，专注利用最大化、价值最大化、产业最大化的全过程，飞机价值管理的重要性也将进一步显现。

Since the 1990s, 200 jets originally owned and operated by Chinese airlines, with an average age of 16.8 years, have been sold to foreign companies, nearly 90 percent of them are passenger aircrafts. Over the same period, more than 140 passenger aircrafts originally operated by Chinese airlines, with an average age of 18.5 years, were converted to cargo. Most of them were older models such as the A300, 737Classic, 757 and md-11, while only four were newer 737NG models. In addition, just over 130 aircraft have been permanently retired from Chinese airlines, with an average age of 17.2 years. Over the next 20 years China will have nearly 2500 aircraft, of which about 550 will be modified to cargo aircrafts, therefore left about 2000 aircrafts will be retired. Over the next five years, more than 200 737NG aircraft with current age of 13 years or more (average age 15.6 years) will reach the average retirement age of 17.9 years, while nearly 280 A320ceos with current age of 12 years or more (average age 15 years) will reach the average retirement age of 17.1 years. As a result, for these two aircraft types alone, the total number of potential aircraft in the retirement age range already exceeds the total number of aircraft that Chinese airlines have retired, sold or converted from passenger to cargo. Second-hand aircraft valuation is still waiting for the domestic aviation market financial leasing companies explore and develop, the sudden global epidemic at the end of 2019 has brought many uncertainties to the future value trend of aircraft in service. Aircraft value evaluation, as a prerequisite for airline asset optimization, is bound to receive more attention. When a large number of old aircraft retire, aircraft asset management will develop towards the whole life management of aircraft, focusing on the whole process of maximizing utilization, value and industry. The importance of aircraft value management will also be further revealed.